Looking Ahead

First off I would like to congratulate the 2011 Virginia Baseball team. You guys singlehandedly brought this program to a new level of expectations and accomplishments this season. For all the accolades that Cal received for being on the brink of extinction and saving their season from alumni donations you have saved this program from oblivion with your masterful play. Through the hard work of Coach O’Connor and his staff, as well as the dedication of our players you have truly turned this program into a national force and a team we can all be very proud of. You play baseball the right way, make people think, and really put on a demonstration of how intelligent and strategic the game can be. Thank you for a great season.

A big congratulations is in order for the players that will most likely be leaving us this summer. You guys have been the driving force in the reemergence of this program and it’s rise to the new heights it has achieved.  I will truly miss watching you play at Davenport. The departing players are:

John Hicks           C

Kenny Swab       OF

Steven Proscia  3B

Tyler Biddix         INF/OF

Corey Hunt         INF/RHP

Danny Hultzen  LHP

John Barr             OF

David Coleman  OF

Will Roberts        RHP

Tyler Wilson       RHP

Cody Winiarski  RHP

However let's take some time to look forward. To see what we have coming back. As I see it now with the players we have returning this is the lineup I’d project if the season started tomorrow, and quite frankly I think it’s pretty stout considering we’re losing the 3-4-5 hitters.

Lineup:

 Shifflett at the top brings a ton of speed and lets Coach O’Connor put all sorts of plays on with him wreaking havoc on the basepaths. I think Gragnani brings versatility to the 2 hole but I would not be surprised if Keith Werman gets a look their two, though I am projecting him to remain in the 9 spot. Chris Taylor emerged to me to have the talent to become the guy on this team. Pairing with a much improved Jared King and hopefully a returning to form Stephen Bruno I think the heart of the order will pack a pretty good punch. Harrington and Levine have demonstrated a good skillset in their time in the order so they go 6-7. I have no idea what is going to happen at DH. I’ll put Amaro in their for now but I expect this to be another matchup platoon next year barring someone coming and lighting it up. And trusty Keith Werman, the most productive .215 hitter in the NCAA holding strong in the 9 spot.

  

Mitchell Shifflett             CF

Reed Gragnani                 RF

Chris Taylor                       SS

Jared King                          1B

Stephen Bruno                3B

Colin Harrington              LF

Ryan Levine                      C

Rob Amaro                        DH

Keith Werman                 2B

Reserves:

Derek Justice                    OF

Mark Podlas                      OF

Shane Halley                     OF

Pitching Staff:

I will admit pitching for next year had me nervous. But the performance by both Branden Kline and Kyle Crockett in that last game has completely reversed my thoughts. I think the rotation for next season is going to be very VERY solid. Kline will anchor the staff on Friday and Crockett will pitch Saturday. I don’t think it’s any secret that the Sunday and Weekday starting spots will be worked out between Silverstein and Mayberry. I’m penciling Mayberry in for now because I like his stuff and he’s a little more seasoned. As far as the bullpen goes I suspect JT Thompson will start off the year as the closer. I know I’m not the most supported on this but I like his stuff a lot. I think Shane Halley, Artie Lewicki and Chad O’Connor will round out the primary bullpen guys for us next year. Yes that seems a little thin for now but give the staff the winter and I think we’ll all be pleasantly surprised.

Rotation:

Friday:                  Branden Kline                    RHP

Saturday:              Kyle Crockett                    LHP

Sunday:                Whit Mayberry                   RHP

Weekday:             Scott Silverstein                  LHP

Bullpen:

CL-Justin Thompson         RHP

Shane Halley                     RHP

Artie Lewicki                    RHP

Chad O'Connor                RHP

Ryan Ashooh                    LHP

Aaron Stull                        LHP

Ryan Briggs                      RHP

Austin Young                    RHP

Coach Bennett's Big 3

Left to Right: SF Justin Anderson, SF Evan Nolte, and C Mike Tobey

Tony Bennet already has started to put his mark on the program by brining in big talents like Joe Harris, KT Harrell, and James Johnson in his first season, and following that year up with another big one with dead-eye shooter Malcom Brogdon from Atlanta as it’s centerpiece. But both of those years pale in comparison to the way the 2012 class is starting to shape up. Let’s take a look.

 

Justin Anderson:

                This is the big fish. The biggest of fish. Justin Anderson has drawn comparisons to Vince Carter, as a sophmore. He can absolutely fly and can be a program centerpiece at small forward. Truly excels in transistion Anderson’s athleticicsm is off the charts. Has the ability to take over games. Strong finisher at the rim also has the ability to catch and dunk at the other end of an alley-oop lob pass. Will be a strong player with defenses being force to respect the deep game of Malcom Brogdon and Joe Harris, already established as deep threats. Coach Bennett is also in love with his tenacity on defense and rebounding. While his athleticisim makes him a strong defender and a tough matchup it’s the polish in his game that has Coach Bennett salivating. He will need to work on his range to blossom into his full potential but he is by far one of the best recruits we’ve had in a while.

 

Evan Nolte:

                Before Anderson committed this was the big commitment from the recruiting class, and for good reason. Nolte stands 6’7” with deep deep range. His game runs a great compliment with Andersons as the perfect kick-out guy for a penetrating Anderson.  Nolte excels in the slow down half-court style offense that Coach Bennett runs. Paired with Brogdon, Nolte will create a dead eye shooting tandem that will be a nightmare to defend, spreading defenses super thin as they will have to guard them all the way out to the three point line. This eliminates what killed us last year which was the packed in 2-3 zone. By spreading it out it allows our penetrating wing players and post guys to have more room to operate, if only we could hold onto Mike Scott another year.

 

Mike Tobey:

                Tobey is a low post presence we are going to need. Tobey will join Darion Atkins and James Johnson to make a very formidable frontcourt for the future. With a deep front court being addressed earlier in recruiting (Atkins, Harris, Johnson, Mitchell will probably be our 4/5 rotation for the next few years) it will allow Tobey to grow into his body. Tobey needs a good bit of polishing but has a ton of potential. Unlike the Sene project of a few years ago Tobey can already catch the ball in traffic and has a soft touch, and a few post moves. His body is a little doughy but that is not atypical of a high school player his size. He needs to develop his low post game more and solidify his frame and he can become a force in the paint.

 

                I’m stunned at how well Coach Bennett is recruiting. When we first brought him in I didn’t think his style of play would attract many top recruits because it is more of a team mentality rather than a showcase of one or two good players. However I am actively being proven wrong. The key to Bennett’s ultimate success or failure at UVA will be his ability to bring in his kind of players that buy into his system but can also compete night in and night out with the tremendous talent that the ACC has to offer. So far Coach Bennett is far exceeding my expectations and I am incredibly excited for the future. Now all we need is someone to run the show. Someone to distribute the ball to these new weapons.  Someone who Coach Bennett can trust to have his head on straight. Someone like…

 

James Robinson:

                This would complete this team. This commitment would bring UVA to the next level. Robinson would be the starting point guard the instant he set foot in Charlottesville. A product of DeMatha High School, Robinson already has all the polish of a pass first point guard that would fit Coach Bennett’s system perfectly. Our main competitor for his talents is of course Georgetown who seems to sustain their program with former Stags. If Robinson looks closely and sees what UVA is building I find it hard to believe he could turn us down. And lord knows we need him. This upcoming season will be crucial for recruiting but I think with a good showing we should land Robinson and be potentially at the top of the ACC.

Cocks 7 Hoos 1

This hurts me to write but I think a big part of the blame for this one goes on the coach, and here’s why. We all knew coming into the CWS that South Carolina was our biggest competition on our side of the bracket. We also knew that game two was the biggest game for us to win. 18 of the last 21 winners of the CWS have gone 2-0 in their first two games. We also knew that Cal was probably the weakest of the teams to make it. Let’s board my train of thought for a second here and I’ll try to explain what my thinking is for this.

                To me once Coach O’Connor brought in Tyler Wilson it showed me one thing clear as day, Will Roberts is the clear number 2 for this team going forward. Granted Roberts has been a much more consistent pitcher for us this season and has been rock solid through the post season so far so this wasn’t a big surprise for me to discover. However let’s looks at his style versus the style of Danny Hultzen, I feel this is where a crucial mistake was made. Will Roberts is effective because he is efficient. He throws a ton of strikes and relies heavily on his defense, which has made him great all season, except tonight. Whether it was nerves or the wet field or whatever the Hoos messed the bed in the field in that first inning and that set the tone. It was very unlike us to commit so many errors and what’s worse is that it continued. This is what ended up sealing our fate.

                This brings me back to the matchup though. When you look at the offenses of Cal and South Carolina one is much more imposing than the other. The Gamecocks play big time SEC nut up or shut up power baseball. To me this is not the kind of team Will Roberts would excel against. Yes there is something to be said to roll out some fluffy nancy finesse pitcher to frustrate that kind of lineup but that’s not the pitcher will is. He throws hard it’s just in the zone. That being said it set up perfectly for South Carolina to put pressure on the defense by hitting the ball hard, which they did, and the defense cracked for the first time all season. I would much rather have seen Will get the start in Game one. I understand you don’t take anyone for granted but when you look at the matchup I firmly believe Cal is a much better matchup for a pitcher of Will’s style. No one on Cal jumps out off the page and intimidates you. They play a west-coast small ball style. A style that is much more conducive to Will’s style, one that will not rope a double off the center field fence if you make a mistake, but rather dump in a single that can be controlled. No one on Cal is hitting a screamer down the line that Proscia can’t handle, that’s not their approach. The appropriate starter for South Carolina would have been Danny. Power for power that might be a good matchup but Danny has the offspeed stuff that could easily neutralize the overaggressive approach of any SEC style team.

                I’m not going to say that O’Connor was the only reason we lost because he wasn’t. If the usually sure handed Prosica grabs that ball at third and we roll through the first unscathed it’s a different game. Hell if we score a run in the 5^th with the bases chucked it’s a different game. But we didn’t and South Carolina had all the momentum. Now all we can do is hope Tyler Wilson can rise to the challenge and defeat Cal, who according to an ESPN report has Jesus Christ on the mound with the Pope and the President of the United States in relief for the next game. Hopefully they’ve run out of montauges for this game and we can actually hear about the game instead of how terrible California’s state budget is.

GO HOOS!

Omahoos

The 4 Horsemen (clockwise from top left): Hultzen, Wilson, Winiarski, Roberts

Let me start off this post by saying that the Super Regional final was the best game of baseball I have ever seen or played in in my entire life, and that is quite a bit of baseball. The Hoos will now take their magical run off to TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Nebraska for the college world series. Bring it on rest of America. I think the Hoos hold tremendous advantages in what I feel are the biggest keys to success in post season play, pitching and defense. In what can I only assume is exactly the kind of team Coach O’Connor was looking for (being a former pitching coach) I have the highest expectations for the Hoos in Omaha. That being said I took what I feel is our greatest strength, starting pitching, and worked out what I think will be the rotations based on scenarios that could play out leading us to the finals. Before we get into this let’s look at each horse in the stable.

Danny Hultzen:

Obviously the ace of the staff. Could go anywhere except probably UCLA and instantly be the top guy. I would put his stuff up against anyone in America. Absolute gamer. Could easily shut down anyone on our side of the bracket.

Tyler Wilson:

Senior leader. Calm under pressure. Nasty stuff when it is on. But he’s been iffy of late. When Wilson is going I would put him up there with Danny with my trust. That slider might be the filthiest pitch on the staff.

Will Roberts:

Innings eater. When used properly I think he’s the kind of pitcher that can save you in this type of tournament because he’ll spare the bullpen. I’m interested to see how Coach O’Connor uses him.

Those are the three starters I think will be in the mix for the opening round. In my mind they can win the first 3 games and not have to worry about anything else but just in case I’m going to outline what I think will be the rotation for the first round. My immense experience of one summer as a pitching coach for the 16U Babe Ruth VA state champions speaks for itself. But here’s how I’d approach it:

To me the most important game in this bracket is going to be game two. I think Coach O’Connor is going to throw the kitchen sink to win that game, especially if we win game one against Cal. To me that means two slots are filled already. Will Roberts will throw game one. A good start against Cal to me would be a nice efficient 7+ innings from Will followed by easing JT and/or Kline into the pressure of Omaha. This would also leave the full arsenal available for Game two where we would roll out Danny with Winiarski in emergency relief. I think with everyone rested we stand the best chance at beating whoever comes out of the A&M vs. South Carolina game. Starting off with two wins and handing the ball to Senior captain Tyler Wilson to get after it in game 3 and a very comfortable Mike Vitale being handed a frosty one to kick back and watch his beloved Hoos advance. Here are the other scenarios should I be wrong and we drop a game.

Scenario 1 (Win out)
Game Number	Date	Starter
1	6/19/2011 14:00	Roberts (W)
2	6/21/2011 19:00	Hultzen (W)
3	6/24/2011 14:00	Wilson (W)
4	N/A	N/A
5	N/A	N/A
Finals
1	6/27/2011 20:00	Hultzen
2	6/28/2011 20:00	Roberts
3	6/29/2011 20:00	Wilson

Scenario 2 (Lose First Win out)
Game Number	Date	Starter
1	6/19/2011 14:00	Roberts (W)
2	6/21/2011 14:00	Hultzen (W)
3	6/23/2011 19:00	Wilson (W)
4	6/24/2011 19:00	Roberts (W)
5	6/25/2011 19:00	Hultzen (W)
Finals
1	6/27/2011 20:00	Winiarski
2	6/28/2011 20:00	Wilson
3	6/29/2011 20:00	Hultzen

Scenario 3 (Win 1 Lose Second Win Out)
Game Number	Date	Starter
1	6/19/2011 14:00	Roberts (W)
2	6/21/2011 19:00	Hultzen (L)
3	6/23/2011 19:00	Roberts (W)
4	6/24/2011 19:00	Wilson (W)
5	6/25/2011 19:00	Hultzen (W)
Finals
1	6/27/2011 20:00	Winiarski
2	6/28/2011 20:00	Roberts
3	6/29/2011 20:00	Wilson

Scenario 4 (Win 2 Lose 1 Win out)
Game Number	Date	Starter
1	6/19/2011 14:00	Roberts (W)
2	6/21/2011 19:00	Hultzen (W)
3	6/24/2011 19:00	Wilson (L)
4	6/25/2011 19:00	Roberts (W)
5	N/A	N/A
Finals
1	6/27/2011 20:00	Hultzen
2	6/28/2011 20:00	Roberts
3	6/29/2011 20:00	Wilson

As you can see there are 2 scenarios that involved our secret weapon and the  secret strength of the team, something I don’t think most college programs have, and that is a legit 4^th starter. Cody Winiarski, a player that was once demoted from Sunday to midweek starter, could prove to become one of the most valuable pieces of this year’s run at a title. Looking at the other side of the bracket and knowing that whoever comes out of that bracket will most likely not be unscathed shows what a tremendous value having a staff as deep as the Hoos can be. This is the year. We have the horses, let’s get it done.

Picks

Mr. Bowers will be making some new friends this weekend

Florida State @ NC State (-3¹/₂)

NC  State. FSU has an aggressive defense that preys on the mistakes made by the opposing QB. Unfortunately Russell Wilson is extremely careful with the ball. Look for FSU to commit a ton of stupid penalties while NC State sustains long drives.  This game is always close. If Ponder is 100% he should be able to lead the Nole’s to a win, but he isn’t. Close game that Wilson wins in a battle of star QBs.

NCSU 24 - FSU 20

Clemson @ Boston College (+7)

Dave Shinskie? Chase Rettig? Mike Marscovetra? Whoever is under center for the Eagles is going to get very  familiar with Da'Quan Bowers who already has 10 sacks, alright he’s better than Allen Bailey, there. Clemson looked good last week and BC looks terrible. Anyone else looking forward to the BC-UVA game? ACC football at it’s best.

Clemson 31 - BC 9

Miami @ Virginia (+15)               

See previous post. I don’t think UVA has much of a chance. But you never know. But considering I will be rooting for UVA they will almost certainly lose. This is a matchup of my two favorites though so there’s a high probability scott stadium will be swallowed up by hell late in the 2^nd quarter

Miami 45 - UVA 17

Duke @ Navy (-13¹/₂)

Duke is bad. Navy just beat ND for the 3^rd time in 4 years. That being said Notre Dame sucks also. I don’t see Duke keeping this close.

Navy 31- Duke 17

Wake Forest @ Maryland (-5¹/₂)

This is the fall from relevance bowl.  Wake is winless on the road and Maryland is undefeated at home. Wake is giving up almost 38 points a game. Ralph Friedgen is fighting for his job and doing it surprisingly well. Maybe this is an Al Groh 07 type season for them. We’ll go with that.

Maryland 24 - Wake Forest 13

William & Mary @ North Carolina (-17¹/₂)

UNC. Only a shitty team would even be close to losing to W&M and you have to be god awful to lose…oh wait. UNC Rolls.

UNC 45 - W&M 3