Preview
The 22nd ranked Miami Hurricanes blow into Scott Stadium this Saturday to face the Hoos. UVa is coming off a 48-21 thumping of Eastern Michigan which saw the offense return to early season form. Senior QB Marc Verica threw for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns but most importantly 0 picks and looked sharp. There were a few of his signature head scratching throws but all in all he looked solid. Special Teams again looked strong with Terence Fells-Danzer returning a kickoff 70 yards for a touchdown. However Virginia’s run defense, which is ranked 114th nationally, and propensity to give up the big play was exposed again this week allowing 3 rushes for over 30 yards to EMU and two over 50 to running back Javonti Green.
The Hurricanes are coming off a 33-10 thumping of UNC last Saturday which saw both the offense and defense explode and look like “The U” of old. Miami racked up 442 yards of offense for its 3rd straight game over 400 yards. Jacory Harris threw for 217 yards and 3 touchdowns and most importantly only one interception. The defense was also stout allowing 289 yards of offense to the Heels, their second lowest total of the season. The defense also posted 5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, 2 picks, and a fumble recovery.
Matchup
Advantage UVA:
UVA is massively out athleticed in this game. Miami has studs at every single position. There are a few places however that UVA holds an advantage.
Kickoff Return:
Raynard Horne is statistically the best return man in the ACC. Conversely Miami is one of the worst cover teams in the ACC which confuses me based on their tremendous athleticism. UVA has a good shot to steal a TD on special teams in the kickoff.
Short Passing:
Miami is one of the most aggressive defenses in college football, leading the ACC in sacks and tackles for loss. However this aggressiveness makes them very vulnerable to misdirections, short passes, and screens. This was the key to UVA’s success early in the season. The Hoos will struggle running against a very stout Miami defensive line so getting the short passing game going will help alleviate pressure and open up the run and the deep pass.
Passing Defense:
Everyone knows about Jacory Harris’s pick problems. He will do his best to throw picks and often gets locked on his favorite target Leonard Hankerson. I’ll address this later but having a healthy Ras-I Dowling will help neutralize a potent offensive attack. Chase Minnifield is also a good matchup with number 2 receiver Travis Benjamin. The big matchup will be the UVA safeties and linebackers covering TE Richard Gordon and Number 3 receiver Aldarius Johnson. In a standard 2 wide out set this matchup does favor UVA. Look for at least one pick. This is another area UVA can steal a TD.
Advantage Miami
However there are glaring areas where UVA is massively outmatched.
Run Defense:
This goes both ways but we’ll focus on Miami running on UVA. An already porous run defense will be facing a stable of talented backs that will only get stronger with home run threat Graig Cooper returning to full strength. The Hurricanes also boast two massive tackles in Orlando Franklin (6-7,312) and Seantrel Henderson (6-8,330). And you thought Morgan Moses was big. Those two tackles will most likely wreak havoc on an already undersized UVA defensive line. In addition to Cooper Miami also has Damien Berry who is an extremely productive every-down back, ranking second in the ACC with 92.6 yards/game.
Pass Rush:
Miami boasts in my opinion the best defensive lineman in the country in Allen Bailey who is listed at 285 but I would not be shocked if he played around 300. Bailey is joined by 2 other Canes in the top ten in sacks in the ACC. Mike London has said that the offensive line will be by committee with Morgan Moses playing well. This is good because they will have their hands full.
Big Plays:
We have all seen UVA give up big plays. Conversely Miami has had 21 plays of 25 yards or more. Miami is also a quick-strike offense with 13 scoring drives lasting less than 2 minutes. If UVA gets in trouble Miami can step on their throat quickly.
Matchups to Watch
Orlando Franklin vs. Cam Johnson
The Miami offensive is only allowing 1.28 sacks per game. Jacory Harris tends to make bad decisions when rushed. If you can get him under pressure (Ohio State, FSU) you can force him to make bad decisions. I once saw Orlando Franklin fall down and crush a trashcan. There’s not really a point to that story it was just incredible and terrifying. If UVA has any hope of generating a pass rush it’s going to come from Cam. Unfortunately I don’t see this happening.
Advantage Miami
Ras-I Dowling vs. Leonard Hankerson
Point blank if Ras-I doesn’t play at full strength UVA is not going to be able to stop Hankerson. At 6-3 205 Hankerson is much bigger than Minnifield who would get the task of covering him in Ras-I’s absence. Dowling however is not a first-round talent for nothing. A true shut down corner blessed with size and speed he can take Hankerson out of the game which will cause Jacory Harris to look elsewhere. And since Hankerson is Harris’s first look every play that will buy Cam Johnson and the line more time to get after the QB.
Advantage UVA (if Dowling plays)
Miami Secondary vs. Marc Verica
Marc Verica makes stupid decisions. Miami has freaks in the secondary. This does not bode well. I can name backups on Miami that would start easily for UVA. You telling me we don’t want Ray Ray Armstrong? Brandon Harris has similar talent to Ras-I just without the size. Look for at least two picks.
Advantage Miami, big time
Allen Bailey vs. UVA O-Line
I’m not going to lie I knew Allen while I was at Miami so I’m a touch biased, but I do think he’s the best pass rusher in the ACC. The reason he’s going against the whole line is because he moves from DE to DT and sometimes to LB. He’s a freak. UVA will need to double team and chip him on almost every play or Marc is going to end up buried in the turf.
Advantage Miami
The Pick
I’ve never attended the winning school in this series. I don’t see that changing. There are ways UVA can keep this close but that’s the best I think they can do. I’d say at best the offense can muster 10 points. Add in a return td or interception td and that gives UVA 17 total. I think Harris will throw for at least 250 yards and 3 TDs. Cooper will break off a huge run and Berry will rack up 100 yards. Add in 3 picks of Verica and someone on the offense being knocked into next week and you have a Miami beat down.
45-17 Canes
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