Ok so I figured I’d give everyone a break from Virginia Basketball and move on to the ACC tournament that starts today. This season has been extremely close in the ACC and there are a few teams that I feel have already punched their cards to the dance. Wake, UNC, Duke, Clemson, and FSU are sitting pretty coming into the tournament. I think the ACC will get anywhere from 5 to 7 teams in this year and with those 5 in that leave up to 2 spots up for grabs which makes this tournament quite the spectacle. These are the teams that are “on the bubble” and what I think they need to do to get into the dance:
Virginia Tech:
Okay look you know I hate everything that has to do with this school but they are still technically in our conference so I’ll get them out of the way first. Tech has had a rather unimpressive year this year. They have 2 big wins this season against then number 1 Wake and number 12 Clemson but they also have some pretty big losses including the recent loss to UVA. Tech is 7 and 9 in the ACC and I think needs a win over Miami and probably an upset of UNC to get in, otherwise prepare to see Seth Greenberg’s head explode on selection Sunday.
Boston College:
If you had asked me a week ago I’d’ve told you that BC was in no problem. But a recent loss to NC State and a one point win over bottom feeder Georgia Tech has called their tournament credentials into question. Luckily BC has drawn UVA in the first round of the tournament and that win is all they probably need to get in with a 10 and 8 conference record and a win over then number 1 North Carolina. BC has been plenty confusing this season so who knows what could happen in the tournament.
Maryland:
Poor Gary Williams must need a new shirt every 5 minutes these days. Maryland has been one of the streakiest teams I can remember this season. They seem to live and die by the 3 and more importantly Grevis Vasquez. Maryland is 7 and 9 in conference and is coming off a bad loss to UVA in which they really played quite badly. Luckily UVA is good at keeping opposing teams in games. Anyway Maryland probably needs to beat NC State in the first round and upset Wake and probably keep it close with Duke or whoever comes out in the next game in order to have a shot at the dance. Can they do it? Sure! Ask Josh Gilchrist who lead Maryland to the ACC Tournament Championship and then declared for the draft only to go undrafted! Good Work!
Miami:
This brings me to my beloved Hurricanes. Miami needs a lot of help and is one of the most frustrating teams to watch play basketball. Probably the most underachieving team in the ACC this year the Canes sit at 7 and 9 and need a win over Tech and at least a good showing against UNC in order to capture a tournament berth.
To the Bracket!
http://www.theacc.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/acc/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/09accbracket
^That’s the link if you want to follow along^
Game 1: Miami and VA Tech
This is a do or die game for both teams. As I said above both need to win this and probably the next game in order to make the tournament. These two teams are complete polar opposites of one another. Tech is a big, slow, lumbering team that has minimal athleticism. Conversely Miami is probably one of the most up-tempo and athletic teams in the ACC. In this matchup I like Miami to run Tech out of the gym and if all else fails Jack McClinton will bring the Canes out on top
Game 2: Clemson and Georgia Tech
GT is horrible. Clemson wins by at least 15.
Game 3: Maryland and NC State:
I think NC State presents a big time matchup problem for Maryland. For as good as the Terps guard play can be they really don’t have an answer for NC State’s bigs. This game is a close call but I’ll always side with size over shooting and Maryland has been known to go cold. NC State wins.
Game 4: BC and Virginia
Hold onto your hats folks but I like UVA in this game. The team has responded well recently and Coach Leitao is probably coaching for his job at this point. UVA has played BC well this year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do it again. Virginia in a squeaker.
Game 5: UNC and Miami
Ty Lawson is hurt for UNC and will not play. Without him I think they Hurricanes are actually a very tough matchup for the Heels. No other team can match the athleticism of UNC with Ty Lawson but I think without him Miami can keep it close. The loss of Marcus Ginyard hurts here too as they don’t have a shut down defender to take care of Jack McCLinton. With UNC pretty much locking up a top seed I expect them not to have too much to play for and Miami to capitalize. Miami pulls the upset.
Game 6: FSU and Clemson
I really REALLY like FSU in a tournament. They are tenacious defensively and Toney Douglas is about as clutch as you can get. I think Clemson puts up a good fight but FSU stifles their offense and Douglas goes off. FSU wins.
Game 7: Wake and NC State
What helped NC State get to this point will end up killing them. Wake is a very athletic young team and will be able to play at a faster tempo than NC State can keep up with. Wake rolls.
Game 8: Duke and Virginia
UVA just does not have enough firepower to keep up with the blue devils and let’s face it no one likes the coaching matchup in this one either. Duke wins handily.
Game 9: Maimi and Florida State
Sadly the Canes run ends here. FSU’s defense can shut down Jack McClinton and there just isn’t enough on that team to make up for his loss. FSU wins fairly easily.
Game 10: Duke and Wake:
This will be the game of the tournament. Both of these teams are athletic and up tempo. If you’re looking for defense you should check if the Big Ten is playing because you will not find it in this game. I look for the point total in this one to get over 170 but duke to come out on top. Wake is still young and you should never bet against Mike Kryzewski in the tournament.
Championship: Duke and FSU
I think FSU will win the ACC this year. If I told you that at the beginning of the season you’d’ve thought I was crazy but I really like their style of play. They have a strong defense and a dynamic leading scorer which I think are the two most important factors come tournament time. FSU cuts down the nets.
So what does that mean Bubblewise?
BC- BURST- If they lose to UVA they might not even get a number 1 in the NIT
MARYLAND-BURST- Sorry Gary, maybe Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter can come console you. They seem to be the only reason you’re keeping your job anyway.
VTech- BURST- With the loss to Miami Tech would have no chance on making the tournament, despite what Seth Greenberg says.
MIAMI- IN- With an impressive showing Miami joins the other 5 acc schools in the big dance this season as probably a 6 or 7 seed.
So that puts UNC, Duke, Wake, Clemson, FSU, and Miami in march madness. I think UNC is a 1, Duke is a 2, Wake and FSU are 3s Clemson a 5 and Miami a 7. I hope everyone enjoys the tournament and gets a good laugh out of how wrong my predictions are.
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